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  Bitcoin continued to behave like a high beta, risk-on asset similar to most of the overvalued tech sector. As Russia’s announcement of military intervention was proliferating across financial markets, U.S. equity markets reached as far down as -3% in the night session, with bitcoin also plummeting to a low of $34,300, before bottoming and aggressively rebounding to a high of $40,000 in a large short squeeze. Bitcoin short squeeze boosts the price while risk assets trade as if maximum fear and uncertainty are priced in after the declarations of war. Bitcoin price weighted by perpetual swap funding rates Bitcoin short squeeze boosts the price while risk assets trade as if maximum fear and uncertainty are priced in after the declarations of war. Bitcoin price drawdown from all time highs At the time of writing bitcoin is down 43% from its highs from November, and 12% off the lows set late last night. At the close of the day the Nasdaq closed an outstanding 3.4% in the green in the d...

  Block, the parent company of Square, Cash App, Spiral, TIDAL, and TBD, released Cash App’s Q4 2021 results, which demonstrate how providing Bitcoin brokerage services might be a good business strategy. During Q4 2021, Cash App generated $1.96 billion in bitcoin revenue and $46 million of bitcoin gross profit, up 12% and 14% year-over-year (YoY), respectively. The compounding annual growth rate (CAGR) for Cash App’s bitcoin revenue and gross profit grew 232% and 285% YoY, respectively. As of December 31, the fair market value of the company’s bitcoin holdings was $371 million. In a Twitter space that took place on February 16, Jack Dorsey, CEO of Block and ex-CEO of Twitter, had as much to say about Bitcoin as one might imagine. “For bitcoin — and in all the other projects around it — I think if we're increasing transparency within the next five to 10 years; if we're increasing participation, and that participation is globally represented; if we're providing daily utility,...

  VOLATILITY SPIKES, BITCOIN FOLLOWS We have covered the relationship between equity market volatility and bitcoin price action extensively since the start of the new year, as the inverse correlation between the price of bitcoin and the VIX (S&P 500 Volatility Index) remains extremely strong. Volatility spiked yet again today as markets reacted to Putin’s speech from yesterday, recognizing the independence and sovereignty of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic. Markets react to Putin’s speech as investors move to safety across risk assets, which is negatively impacting the price of bitcoin and tech stocks. Inverse correlation between the price of bitcoin and the VIX remains extremely strong. With bitcoin currently down 43% from the highs at the time of writing, other assets (specifically the tech sector) have been getting hammered as of late. We compared the performance of bitcoin since its all-time high to major, select tech stocks across Google, Am...

  In Greek mythology, Thetis dipped her infant son Achilles into the River Styx to give him the power of invulnerability. Achilles grew to become a seemingly-invincible warrior, but he was felled when a poison arrow struck him in the heel, the very spot where Thetis had held him when she dipped him in the river. She’d missed just one tiny spot, but that was the downfall of Achilles. In modern times, the term “Achilles’ heel” has become synonymous with any powerful force that is taken down by an unforeseen or small weakness, and history is littered with mighty people and organizations that have fallen in just this way. For the past 13 years, Bitcoin has been a very powerful force that has fended off all attackers. This has given many of Bitcoin’s advocates an air of confidence, but this might be ill-placed or even dangerous. The genius behind Bitcoin is clear, but this doesn’t make it perfect or invulnerable. In the years, decades and centuries ahead, unimaginable variables will eme...

  In God We Trust: All Others Pay Cash.  — Jean Shepherd Many well-known Bitcoiners say that bitcoin is money for enemies: Vijay Boyapati tweeted about it; Nic Carter has written on it; Peter McCormack and American Hold chanted that conclusion here. On these pages in January 2022, Mark Goodwin wrote: “Bitcoin simply must be for enemies, or it will never be for friends.” It sounds good and it feels nice, drop-mic style, but what does it mean for bitcoin to be for enemies? Or any money for that matter? What is the trustless, decentralized nature of bitcoin bringing to the table? One answer is that bitcoin doesn’t care about your opinions, including your assessment of potential trading partners. It works, whether operated by friend or foe. That’s true, but holds for every other money, too: With fiat, I can shop for groceries from strangers and heretics just fine. Another is that bitcoin allows people to transact peacefully without knowing about the other’s status as an enemy. Tha...

  The Common Man is currently attempting to make his voice heard in more ways than one as the morass of an ever expanding amorphous supranational Totalitarian order attempts to put him in the grave. Whether it be using his ability to take up space to force those in power to recognize his legitimate grievances or simply trying to have a conversation in an attempt to get an understanding of the landscape; the state, materializing in many different forms is there to put him in his place. In Canada, those participating in the peaceful Freedom Convoy are being labeled as domestic terrorists who don't deserve the ability to bank. Here in the US (and beyond), anyone who attempts to seek out perspectives of those who don't find themselves within the halls of the mainstream corporate press and medical establishment is getting labeled an unstable quack unworthy of having their thoughts broadcast to the rest of the world. In Australia, those who are fed up of being unreasonably locked in ...

  In today’s Daily Dive, we will cover some of the key on-chain cycle indicators and what they tell us about where we are at in the market. All of the indicators today leverage a percentile analysis, looking at current values over historical percentiles, to show when indicators suggest when the market is bottomed, topped, neutral or in between. Across the approximately 20 on-chain cycle indicators we track, on-chain shows a neutral to bullish market setup. Yet, we know that on-chain, macro and derivatives all play a role in bitcoin’s growth trajectory, especially with high bitcoin risk-on equities correlations right now. The Market Value To Realized Value Ratio (MVRV) is a metric we cover extensively as it incorporates the current state of price relative to bitcoin’s on-chain cost basis or “fair value.” The MVRV Z-Score incorporates the standard deviation of market cap to produce a more quality signal. At the previous 2021 bitcoin highs, we didn’t see the cycle blow-off tops play o...

  Well that escalated quickly. We've been covering the Freedom Convoy in Canada over the last few weeks. When we first wrote about the subject, GoFundMe had shutdown a campaign dedicated to the cause after being pressured by the Canadian government. In light of this bitcoiners sprung into action to spin up a Tallycoin campaign so that organizers could receive funds directly to wallets that they controlled, eliminating the potential for a trusted third party to freeze and seize the funds. Over the course of last week, that particular campaign gained a lot of traction and attention from the press as many from around the world sent billions of satoshis. Highlighting bitcoin's value prop in relation to the traditional monetary and payment systems that dominate today. Fast forward to today, the Freedom Convoy is going strong and only getting stronger as truckers and those who have joined them have successfully blocked critical commerce routes to send a message to those in power with...

  Viral Canadian rapper Drake made waves last week when he placed over $1.26 million of BTC in bets for Super Bowl LVI, taking to Instagram to show the world his gamble on the Bitcoin casino and sports betting platform, Stake. Drake risked over $471k on the Rams to win outright, receiving a payout of more than $711k. The rapper also placed two other bets which were centered around Rams superstar and Bitcoiner, Odell Beckham Jr.  The bets both risked $393k each that Beckham would top 62.5 receiving yards and score at least one touchdown, winning the $844k payout for Odell scoring a first quarter touchdown. Drake did not win his final bet as Beckham's evening ended early because of a knee injury, only completing 52 receiving yards according to CBS Sports. Had the last bet become a reality, Drake would have brought in another $711k in Bitcoin, totaling $2.27 million, but instead walked away with profit of just over $1.5 million. With celebrities like Drake taking big BTC position...

  Hyperbitcoinization is happening in real time. For fiat, the end is nigh, and no one explains this better than Brian Harrington. For him, Bitcoin is a lifestyle. Every day, the actions he takes center around furthering Bitcoin. Harrington and I discussed many interesting topics in this episode of “Meet The Plebs,” but none are as fascinating to him as the “get on zero” movement. Described as maximally limiting your exposure to fiat usage and holdings, Harrington talked about how this movement is a part of making hyperbitcoinization the reality of today. We also discussed planning for the future, stress and many other interesting topics. Be sure to check out the written interview below, and the podcast as well. How were you first introduced to Bitcoin? I have one email from my dad from 2014 that has the word “Bitcoin” in it and he was talking to me about a trading bot that he was trying to run on Mt Gox. In January 2015, we then both made our Coinbase accounts together. What are s...

  When news surfaced that one of the largest computer chip makers in the world, Intel, would give a presentation about an application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) geared for bitcoin mining at the International Solid-State Circuits Conference (ISSCC), a global forum for presentation of advances in solid-state circuits and systems-on-a-chip to be held online later this month, the first logical conclusion was that the company would be presenting a new chip it had developed specifically for the activity. On the very next day, publicly-listed bitcoin miner GRIID disclosed that it had signed a purchase agreement with Intel for acquiring fixed-price bitcoin mining ASIC hardware from the chipmaker for orders placed before May 2023, in what appeared to be a move to secure access to Intel’s new chip to be presented at the upcoming conference. However, Intel spokesperson Nicolas Mijuskovic indicated that the company has done design work around SHA-256 optimized ASICs “for several years,...

  As we’ve discussed in previous Daily Dives, March 2020 was a significant catalyst and turning point for bitcoin. We can see that in the behavior of exchange balances which have shown consistent net outflow over the last two years. The two most recent periods of significant inflows were right before both 2021 bitcoin local price tops. These tops in April and November coincided with the previous month showing net exchange inflows of bitcoin in both March and October. January was the largest outflow month since September 2021. Keeping an eye on exchange flow dynamics can help us track demand sentiment and when that is fundamentally changing for market participants. The 90-day cumulative exchange flow has consistently moved with price over the last year. In the chart below, the right-hand side axis is reversed to show how a decreasing net exchange flow correlates with a rising price and vice versa.  What we’ve seen in January is a turning point in the 90-day cumulative netflow w...

  In his 2020 book, “The Price of Tomorrow: Why Deflation Is the Key to an Abundant Future,” Jeff Booth describes two opposing forces at the core of our economy: fiat monetary debasement (i.e., money printing) and technological advancement. Monetary debasement is inflationary, as prices rise when more dollars, euros, etc., chase after the same number of goods and services. Technological advancement, by contrast, is deflationary, as over time technological breakthroughs allow for goods and services to be produced and distributed at higher volume and lower cost. The effects of these opposing forces on price levels somewhat cancel each other out; an increased supply of currency is matched to some degree with an increased supply of goods and services available. Of course, different classes of goods and services are impacted by technological innovation to different degrees, which results in uneven inflation rates across industries. The rate of innovation in the consumer electronics indu...

  The current price of bitcoin makes it seem as if the world's leading cryptocurrency is no longer approachable by mainstream users. A five-digit price point makes people rethink their decision, as most assume they still need to buy one full bitcoin. Introducing denomination in satoshis can, in my opinion, make a lot more sense when onboarding newcomers. It may take some effort before the satoshi standard becomes commonplace, though. THE BITCOIN "ACQUISITION PROBLEM" Most people in our society can only think in full coins. One dollar, one euro, one pound sterling. Although we can all use change, no one is a fan of the system. If something is priced at $4.22, we will pull out a $5 bill and dump the change we receive into a pocket somewhere. Society likes round numbers, which creates an annoying problem when dealing with bitcoin. Convenience often trumps everything else but acquiring bitcoin with that mindset isn't necessarily convenient. More specifically, a lot of peo...